By JEREMY PAGE
China reshuffles its top military brass just weeks before a Communist Party leadership change. The WSJ's Jeremy Page explains how much power China's military really has.
BEIJING?Just over two weeks before a Communist Party leadership change, China began a sweeping shuffle of its military top brass that could elevate the status of the air force and navy and determine the political powers of the country's presumptive future leader, Xi Jinping, over the next two years.
A spokesman for China's Defense Ministry said Tuesday that Gen. Ma Xiaotian had been appointed the new air force chief?a post that is almost certain to give him one of the 12 seats on the Central Military Commission, which commands the armed forces, when it is appointed with a new lineup next month.
ReutersGen. Ma Xiaotian, saluting Sri Lankan soldiers in December, was promoted ahead of a party congress expected to elevate Xi Jinping.
The spokesman also said Gen. Zhang Yang had been appointed as head of the armed forces' powerful General Political Department?another post that usually comes with a guaranteed seat on the Central Military Commission, known as the CMC.
Gen. Zhang was seen as a dark-horse candidate for the job, according to experts on the Chinese military, and his appointment appears to rule out the promotion to the CMC of two generals who were close to Bo Xilai, the ousted party official whose wife was convicted of murdering a British businessman.
"This suggests a focus on promoting competent, professional soldiers who'll continue the modernization of the military and who are willing to stay out of politics," said Taylor Fravel, a professor of political science and expert on China's military at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The appointments were the first official indications of who is likely to replace the seven or eight CMC members due to retire in a once-a-decade shuffle of the party leadership that kicks off at the 18th Congress, starting Nov. 8, according to military experts and party insiders.
The shuffle comes at a critical point for China's armed forces, which are rapidly developing the air and naval power to challenge U.S. military dominance of Asia, even as the U.S. counters by refocusing its forces on the region, and rebuilding defense ties with Asian allies and partners.
The military succession is also a test of outgoing party chief and President Hu Jintao's commitment to institutionalize a leadership transition process that until a decade ago was often marked by political upheaval, according to party insiders and analysts.
Mr. Hu is due to retire as party chief next month and as president in March. But many party insiders and political analysts expect him to remain for another two years in his military post as chairman of the CMC, as his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, did after stepping down as party chief in 2002.
That would, in effect, clip the wings of Xi Jinping, who is currently vice president and the only civilian vice chairman of the CMC. It would mean Mr. Xi would have to defer to Mr. Hu on defense issues for the next two years and would have less say in promoting generals to the body, according to party insiders.
Getty ImagesXi Jinping, center
Mr. Hu has leaned toward retaining his military post in recent months, partly as a result of the scandal surrounding the ousted Mr. Bo, and partly due to concerns about the continuing political influence of former President Jiang, party insiders and analysts say.
The Bo scandal disrupted the military succession because he cultivated close ties to senior officers, including at least two generals who are both descended from party leaders and were until recently considered favorites for promotion to the next CMC, according to party insiders.
They are Gen. Liu Yuan, the son of a former Chinese president, and Gen. Zhang Haiyang, the son of a former CMC vice chairman. They had both been potential candidates to take over the General Political Department, which oversees ideological education and discipline in the armed forces.
Gen. Zhang Yang is an unexpected but far less controversial choice for that post.
He was previously serving as political commissar of the Guangzhou Military Region, and appears to have always toed the party line, and avoided domestic political disputes, in his public statements.
"The point is that it's not Liu Yuan," said Steve Tsang, professor of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham in Britain.
"This also shows that we're at the stage where they're getting into agreement on the new CMC. What we still don't know is whether Hu Jintao will stay on as its head," he said.
Gen. Ma, the new air force chief, is also an uncontroversial choice. He was previously deputy chief of general staff, and took part in many recent foreign visits, including to the U.S. He was widely expected to be promoted to his new post, according to military analysts.
Among the key issues now for observers of China's military is who will take over from the two uniformed CMC vice chairmen?the most senior military officers in the Communist Party?who both have seats in the Politburo, the party's top 25 leaders.
The two uniformed CMC vice chairmen and the defense minister have usually come from the army in the past, but this year, the navy and the air force could account for two of those three posts?a reflection of China's shifting military priorities, analysts say.
Gen. Ma's predecessor as air force chief, Xu Qiliang, is a leading candidate for a vice chairmanship, while Adm. Wu Shengli, the navy chief, is among the front-runners for defense minister, according to party insiders and military experts.
China's vast military was long dominated by the army and geared toward fighting land wars with its neighbors. But it is now increasingly focused on using air and sea power to defend its territorial claims in waters near its shores, and to protect perceived Chinese national interests in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and beyond.
Write to Jeremy Page at jeremy.page@wsj.com
A version of this article appeared October 24, 2012, on page A8 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Beijing Shakes Up Military Leadership.
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