I've been avoiding doing a tick-tock of "will-he-or-won't-he" on Chris Christie's deliberations this weekend, and his camp has stayed off the grid. Christie himself has also stayed mum, and he has no media availability tomorrow.
But three sources who are aware of the discussions in Christieland said their perception is it's likelier than not that he stays out of the 2012 race.
Continue ReadingHowever, all three said the same thing - it's a family discussion between Christie and his wife Mary Pat, and he could still decide to run.
The path, as two sources who are aware of some of the discussions told me, for a Christie run would likely be to perform strongly in Iowa (which wouldn't mean winning) and then use that to springboard into New Hampshire and duke it out with Mitt Romney for what is essentially Romney's home state.
It's not impossible, and it would become a personality dogfight in which Christie might succeed - especially since he tends to resonate with people. But it is a tough campaign, made tougher without months of preparedness in terms of early-state operations, self-vetting and fundraising - all with a newly-condensed primary calendar.
Another source said that the SEC pay-to-play restrictions had proven more worrisome to some Christie supporters than they'd initially thought them to be (although the super PAC potential has remained the focus).
If Christie takes a pass on running, for all the questions about whether he'll have a tough re-election, the reality is that unless Cory Booker challenges him, there is right now no truly formidable opponent on the horizon for 2013. And that is likely to remain the case, unless Christie gets dinged up in a nomination battle he doesn't win.
That last issue gets to a relevant point from the pages of the Washington Post this morning - the hunting camp story once known by a racially charged name that Rick Perry's family leased for years.
The facts of the story are heavily in dispute by the campaign, and not all the details are clear. But it's the kind of thing that clearly never became an issue in two decades of statewide Texas campaigns by Perry - but which, in a national race, is held up differently.
And it's also the kind of thing that months of self-vetting might - might - have flagged as a potential problem.
Christie would be entering the race facing similar questions about almost every decision he's ever made in life and in his work, from a national press corp used to operating on a 24-hour news cycle, and with little margin for error.
Christie may still run, and there's no question he'd be formidable. But it would also be a hard fight.
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